Welcome to the Q4 2025 review of Orion Investment Managers. The final quarter of the year delivered encouraging progress for both global and domestic markets, supported by moderating inflation, stabilising interest‑rate expectations and stronger-than-anticipated economic resilience across developed markets. Locally, sentiment improved as inflation continued its downward trajectory and expectations for a more accommodative South African Reserve Bank (SARB) policy path strengthened.

Against this backdrop, Orion Investment Managers experienced sustained growth across our portfolios and fund range. As always, our emphasis remains on disciplined capital allocation, valuation-led decision-making and consistent execution of our investment philosophy. Our objective is unchanged: delivering strong and predictable real returns for our clients over the long term.

Our Investment Businesses

The local asset and investment management companies owned by Orion are:

Cadiz Asset Management – specialist local fixed income

Starfunds.ai – rule‑based quantitative management

Accorn Investment Management – long‑only equity and multi‑asset funds

Palmyra Asset Management – local equity, property and multi‑asset strategies

Capita Asset Management – long‑only equity and multi‑asset solutions

Investin Asset Management – long‑only equity and multi‑asset funds

During the quarter, we successfully rebalanced our wrap funds, adding additional funds in the Ninety-One, Allan Gray and Old Mutual wrap funds.

On behalf of the entire Orion Investment Managers team, I would like to thank Warwick for its continued support and the business invested in our strategies throughout 2025. We look forward to strengthening this partnership in 2026.

Asset Allocation for Q1 2026

Local Asset Classes

Key positioning:

Duration remains extended versus the All Bond Index.

Inflation‑linked bonds remain unattractive, with zero exposure maintained across multi‑asset portfolios.

Property (Slightly Cautious After Strong Performance)

We have increased our weight to 3% in stable mandates and 5% in balanced mandates.

While property fundamentals remain broadly supportive—especially if SARB easing unfolds as expected—valuations have normalised, limiting near‑term upside.

Equity (marginally positive and remain selective within the various sectors)

We retain a marginally positive stance on South African equities.

Global Asset Classes

Global Cash (Underweight)

We remain underweight global cash, as the return outlook remains modest in anticipation of continued easing from major central banks in 2026.

Equities continue to offer superior long‑term return prospects relative to cash and bonds.

Global Bonds (Neutral; Short‑Duration Bias Maintained)

We maintain our neutral view on global bonds.

Our funds remain short duration relative to the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index due to asymmetric upside yield risk.

Global Equity (neutral view maintained)

We remain positive on global equities, maintaining current exposures across balanced and stable mandates.

Key positioning:

Developed markets preferred over emerging markets.

Structural overweight to the US, reflecting earnings durability, balance sheet strength, and global leadership in technology, AI, and healthcare. US corporates continue to provide a superior blend of growth, innovation, and profitability.

Conclusion and House View Summary

As we close move into 2026, our positioning reflects conviction in:

Nominal bonds (local and selective global)

Developed market equities, particularly the US

Marginally overweight domestic equity with selective sector tilts

Caution in cash and inflation‑linked bonds

Raised property exposure following a strong mid‑year rally

Our portfolios remain tilted toward diversification, valuation discipline and real return generation, ensuring we remain aligned with our long‑term investment objectives.

Asset allocation continues to be the primary driver of portfolio outcomes. Our quarterly Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) review process ensures that portfolios remain aligned with the consolidated house view based on macroeconomic insight and bottom‑up valuations.

We maintain our discipline, optimism, and a commitment to delivering consistent real returns for clients.

I wish everyone in the Spirit Invest group of companies a successful and productive year ahead.

Adrian Meager
Managing Director & Chief Investment Officer
Orion Investment Managers